The United Kingdom Independence Party may have lost a leader but has found its public

 

THIS has been a bitter-sweet election for the United Kingdom Independence Party. The failure of Nigel Farage, the party’s boisterous leader, to win the constituency of Thanet South was a sharp disappointment. So too was the defeat of Mark Reckless, a defector from the Conservatives, who couldn’t hold on to Rochester and Strood (both were seen off by Tory candidates). Douglas Carswell, another defector, held on to Clacton, but with a reduced majority. On the other hand, with 12% of the public vote, triple what it won in 2010, UKIP has proved it can command considerable public support. But it has yet to convert that enthusiasm into seats in Westminster.

Paul Nuttall, UKIP’s deputy leader, growled that the result was an “affront to democracy”, and argued, reasonably enough, that Britain’s first-past-the-post system should be scrapped. His party has been surprisingly quiet on electoral reform until now, given how poorly the current system treats them: the 1.5m-odd voters who plumped for the Scottish National Party have 56 MPs, UKIP’s almost 4m supporters have a solitary one. The party has suffered for having support that is spread so widely across the country. Electoral reform was once an issue trumpeted mostly by the Liberal Democrats, but UKIP’s warped result may have helped to make it unavoidable
More cheering for UKIP are the number of second-place results it secured. By the end of the count, it could be as many as 100. And although they have taken votes from the Tories in the south of England, the results confirm UKIP is increasingly Labour’s main rival in the north, too. In seats such as Barnsley Central, Oldham West, Rotherham, South Shields and Sunderland the party won between 19% and 30% of the vote. In Morley and Outwood its vote share rose by 13%, contributing to the downfall of Ed Balls, the Labour shadow chancellor. Some former Labour supporters seem to have been willing to express their disappointment with that party by voting UKIP, even as they could not bring themselves to vote Tory. Many questions now linger over UKIP’s future. Mr Farage has resigned as leader, as he promised to do if he did not win in Thanet South. He may yet make a comeback, but without him, the party would lose its biggest name. Its vote-share has jumped since 2010 but in the longer term it relies heavily on older, white, working-class voters, hardly a growing group.
Meanwhile, with the Conservative victory comes the promise of a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union. UKIP is dedicated to leaving the EU: David Cameron says he does not want to. Will more disgruntled Eurosceptic Tories defect? Even as they fought this election, Many UKIPpers said that they had the 2020 vote in their sights. Coming second in so many races this time means they can plausibly describe themselves as the opposition in those seats. And they may well make significant gains in yesterday’s local elections, the results for which have yet to be released.
It has not made the transition to being a significant power in Westminster. But UKIP is unquestionably a force in British politics.